The Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, Should Win, and Was Robbed
By Scott Kurland
Another Academy Awards is upon us. I love this time of year, because I get to voice my opinion on the one thing I’m an expert on... movies. These yearly predictions started as a combination of two existing columns. My first inspiration came from “The Boston Globe’s” ‘who will win’ section. The final inspiration was developed by the late, greats Gene Siskel and Roger Ebert. Please keep in mind these are just opinions and not based on anything set in stone. It’s just what you should expect Oscar night this sunday February 22nd. You may agree with me, you may not, but just remember I have called the Oscars the last five years and counting. Let’s start this thing shall we?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
WHO WILL WIN: This is a category that is all but sealed, J.K. Simmons will win. He’s already won everything else and it’s his time anyways. He was robbed in 2007 for not getting nominated for “Juno”; this is his redemption.
WHO SHOULD WIN: J.K Simmons and Edward Norton both deserve the win. Simmons will get it, but Norton is equally as deserving.
WHO WAS ROBBED/WHO SHOULDN’T BE THERE: I love Robert Duvall, but he should not be nominated. It’s a good performance, but there’s more worthy nominees. I feel like Bill Hader was robbed for his work in “The Skeleton Twins”, and this is another example of comedians getting robbed based on the fact they tell jokes for a living. Hader’s performance was dark, real, and somewhat beautiful.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
WHO WILL WIN: Patricia Arquette, like Simmons Arquette has won everything for which she was nominated.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Patty Arquette, it’s a very difficult role and the 12 year filming shows her growth as an actress. I wouldn’t mind seeing Emma Stone win though, she won’t, the award belongs to Arquette.
WHO WAS ROBBED/WHO SHOULDN’T BE THERE: I loved “The Imitation Game” , but Knightley’s character was not nearly as developed as it should have been. I much rather seen Carrie Coon for “Gone Girl” or Tilda Swinton for “Snowpiercer”, “Only Lovers Left Alive”, or “Grand Budapest Hotel”. Granted that would never happen for either actress but it would be nice.
WHO WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: I have one really long sentence for you. “BIRDMAN or (The Unexpeted Virtue of Ignorance). That is what will and should win.
WHO WAS ROBBED/WHO SHOULDN’T BE THERE: This is the only category that I agree with all the nominees. No one was robbed.
WHO WILL WIN: “Boyhood,” they filmed it over 12 years and it looks flawless. There’s not a doubt in my mind it won’t win.
WHO SHOULD WIN: As much as I love “Boyhood” I feel like “Whiplash” deserves this Oscar. If anyone has eve edited anything you’ll know the pain of editing musical footage together. Everything needs to be in sync and everything needs to be perfectly blended. “Boyhood” has years of footage, but “Whiplash” should win.
WHO WAS ROBBED/WHO SHOULDN’T BE THERE: “Birdman” it’s that simple, I’m shocked it was not nominated. It has the cleanest edits I have ever seen on film, and for that it was robbed of a nomination.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
WHAT WILL WIN: “Imitation Game” or “The Theory Of Everything”. It will be a fight to the finish, but I’m going to lean closer to “Imitation Game”. It’s well developed and the writing is stronger. Also “Imitation Game” needs a win in a category.
WHAT SHOULD WIN: “Imitation Game” should win, it’s the most compelling story of the five nominees.
WHO WAS ROBBED/WHO SHOULDN’T BE THERE: I don’t think “Inherent Vice” should be nominated, and I think “Wild” or “Gone Girl” was robbed. Both adaptations were worthy of such a nomination, and it’s a shame they got snubbed.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
WHAT WILL WIN: This is a three way competition now. If it was a month ago I’d say “Birdman”, but both “Boyhood” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” have been winning screenplay awards. I’m going to lean more towards “The Grand Budapest” because it needs an award, and they won’t give it best picture. Don’t be surprised if “Birdman” wins.
WHO SHOULD WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”, it’s a perfect screenplay. It has the best structure and the dialog is superb.
WHO WAS ROBBED/WHO SHOULDN’T BE THERE: I agree with all the nominees in this category nothing was robbed in my opinion. The Academy usually gets the writing nominations correct.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
WHAT WILL WIN: This is hard because I want to say “Big Hero 6”, but I believe that “How To Train Your Dragon 2” could pull a sneak attack at the last moment and win. I also think that “The Boxtrolls” and “The Tale Of Princess Kaguya” deserve a fair shot too.
WHAT SHOULD WIN: “The Boxtrolls” Laika needs a win, they’ve made three amazing films that always lose to Disney and Pixar. It’s their turn.
WHO WAS ROBBED/WHO SHOULDN’T BE THERE: “The Lego Movie” I can’t even express my disappointment. It was snubbed because the last ten minutes is live action....that’s utter crap if you ask me.
WHO WILL WIN: Julianne Moore. That’s all I can say, it’s hers for the taking.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Julianne Moore, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Felicity Jones steal the Oscar.
WHO WAS ROBBED/WHO SHOULDN’T BE THERE: I don’t agree with nominating Marion Cotillard. It’s a good film and a good performance, but this was a nomination to prevent a more deserving performance. I may sound crazy, but Jenny Slate from “Obvious Child” was robbed. Like Bill Hader, this is another comedic performance over looked. When will the Academy learn comedy is harder than drama?
WHO WILL WIN: It’s going to be a fight to the finish between Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton. I want to say Keaton, because he’s been picking up more momentum. However, if Redmayne wins over Keaton it won’t surprise me. Best Actor is now between Birdman and Hawking....eh? Eh? Get it? Birdman and HAWKing. Ok moving on.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Keaton, hands down the best leading performance of the year. I would love to see Cumberbatch steal it, but Keaton should win.
WHO WAS ROBBED/WHO SHOULDN’T BE THERE: I love Bradley Cooper, but the Academy snubbed both David Oyelowo for “Selma” and Ralph Fiennes for “The Grand Budapest”. I understand nominating Cooper, but it was a last minute write in and two worthy men were left out.
BEST DIRECTING/ BEST PICTURE:
WHO WILL WIN: There’s a reason I combines these two categories. If “Boyhood” wins Best Picture, Inarritu could win best Director and Vice Versa. This is another fight to the finish between “Boyhood” and “Birdman”. I’m going with “Boyhood”, but there’s been a last minute surge of “Birdman” winning everything lately. I don’t think Linklater will win both Director and Picture, but it is possible. It is also possible Innarritu could win both as well. I’d like to see “Boyhood” take both.
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Boyhood” you all know how I feel about this film. It deserves Best Picture and Best Director.
WHO WAS ROBBED/WHO SHOULDN’T BE THERE: One word and it is all I’ll say for directing “Selma”. Ava DuVernay was robbed. As for Best Picture, “Foxcatcher” was robbed.